644
FXCA20 KWBC 071853
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 07 OCT 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
HURRICANES KIRK....LESLIE...AND MILTON. THE STORM WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL IMPACT IS CURRENT MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON. AS OF THIS
WRITING...MILTON IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 175 MPH (280 KPH). CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF MILTON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT DAY...BUT THE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUGGESTS A 3-DAY TOTAL BETWEEN 50 AND 150MM...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA. ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...THE NHC IS ALSO MONITORING AN AREA OF POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO OF
MEXICO. THE NHC HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN
COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES
AND OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NHC AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DAILY RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA. ALSO...OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
CYCLONES...THERE IS A SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...NEAR 26N/84W THAT IS MOVING EAST...EXPECTED TO EMERGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SHALLOW...BUT IT COULD BRING VERY
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO OF MEXICO...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST...ALONG BUT STAYING
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...COULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 50-100MM
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOME COASTAL SECTIONS OF
JALISCO AND NAYARIT...WHILE 25 TO 50MM OR SO ACROSS AREAS IN AND
AROUND THE COAST OF COLIMA.
THE MID LEVELS HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TROPICAL
REGION....THOUGH THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF HIGHER
VORTICITY...GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS. THEREFORE...HIGHER VORTICITY IS OBSERVED IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
ALSO LOCALLY HIGHER VORTICITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN...NORTH OF PANAMA...WHERE THERE IS A SFC TROUGH. A BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS
INTERACTING WITH HURRICANE MILTON. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT AS HURRICANE MILTON MOVES NORTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WEST TOWARDS THE ANTILLES.
BY THURSDAY...A BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVELS WOULD PROMOTE STABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT NOT FOR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY...BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT...SO INSTEAD OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTING STABILITY...IT WILL HELP DEVELOP AN
UPPER JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VENTILATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND THE
GREATER ANTILLES. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MEXICO BY MIDWEEK...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE AREA.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION...THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MILTON...THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
TO ITS WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...WHICH COULD OBSERVE UP TO AROUND 100MM AS THE LOW LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CAUSE DAILY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...TOTALING
NEAR 100-150MM OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH DAILY MAX
VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 25-60MM/DAY. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH GENERAL
STABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...THERE IS A
PORTION OF WESTERN CUBA THAT COULD OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DUE TO POSSIBLE PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE
MILTON AND FEEDER BANDS THAT COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DAILY MAX RAINFALL OF AROUND 15-25MM...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
WINDS...CAUSING THE LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER
ANY ONE AREA. ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...COSTA RICO INTO WESTERN
PANAMA WOULD BE THE AREA WITH MOST RELIABLE DAILY RAINFALL...AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA AND PROMOTE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA INTERACTING WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. FOR THAT
REASON...DAILY RAINFALL MAX VALUES OF AROUND 20-45MM ARE FORECAST
FOR SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE AREAS FROM NICARAGUA TO
GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15-35MM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12
EW 15N 51W 53W 55W 58W 61W 64W 68W
ALAMO...(WPC)
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