592
FXUS01 KWBC 072003
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2024
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 08 2024 - 00Z THU OCT 10 2024
...HURRICANE MILTON CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE MILTON BRINGS THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND KEYS...
...RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES EARLY THIS WEEK FOR CALIFORNIA
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS...
HURRICANE MILTON HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. THE FIRST THREAT TO ADDRESS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING AHEAD OF HURRICANE MILTON OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER A MODERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT (LEVEL 3/4) FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG A DRAPED STATIONARY FRONT IS ALLOWING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE OVER 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THE
END OF THE DAY. SATURATED SOILS AND RAIN BANDS AHEAD OF MILTON
WILL PLACE FLORIDA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) FOR FLASH FLOODING. WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES AGAIN AS THE CENTER OF MILTON APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL-NORTH FLORIDA WILL BE UNDER
A MODERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AGAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY. THIS RAINFALL BRINGS THE RISK OF CONSIDERABLE FLASH,URBAN,
AND AREAL FLOODING, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR
RIVER FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS PRUDENT TO POINT OUT THAT
STORM SURGE WILL BE A BIG DEAL WITH THIS STORM AND NEEDS TO BE
PREPARED FOR SERIOUSLY. THE HIGH END STORM SURGE TOTALS BEING
FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ARE AROUND 8-12 FT FOR
MANY AREAS AROUND THE VULNERABLE TAMPA BAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REGARDING MILTON, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
MEANWHILE, A RECORD BREAKING LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE CONTINUES INTO
THE EARLY WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST
OF THESE REGIONS. HIGHS WILL HOVER AROUND THE CENTURY MARK OVER
THE CALIFORNIA VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY BEFORE COOLING
OFF SLIGHTLY INTO THE 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SEE MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-110 F
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE COUNTRY, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND MUCH
OF THE PLAINS SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING TEMPERATUES AS A WARM
FROM LIFTS NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE 80S,
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DAILY RECORD BREAKING, AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE OPPOSITE WILL BE TRUE FOR MOST OF THE EAST
COAST AS A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH
TEMPERATUES WILL BE FEELING FALL LIKE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SOME OF UPSTATE NEW ENGLAND AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY SEE SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS UPPER
TROUGHING OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS.
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
WILDER
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