085
FXUS01 KWBC 080828
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2024
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 08 2024 - 12Z THU OCT 10 2024
...HURRICANE MILTON HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 5
STORM AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO MUCH OF FLORIDA
INCLUDING A DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE, DEVASTATING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS, AND CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING...
...UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S., SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE...
HURRICANE MILTON HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND IS CURRENTLY A
POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 STORM LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE TAMPA BAY VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE HURRICANE WILL HAVE WIDE-REACHING
IMPACTS FAR AWAY FROM THE LANDFALL LOCATION BEGINNING BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND COVERING THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT
LIMITED TO TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG, SARASOTA-BRADENTON, CAPE
CORAL-FORT MYERS, LAKELAND-WINTER HAVEN, AND ORLANDO. A LARGE AREA
OF DESTRUCTIVE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
PEAK SURGE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 FEET IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTH TO CHARLOTTE HARBOR. POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
WHERE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. MILTON IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
LIFE-THREATENING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TODAY
(TUESDAY) FOR THE PENINSULA, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT FOR SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
THEN, BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND LANDFALL
OF MILTON, PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WHERE A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 4/4) HAS
BEEN ISSUED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 12 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
AND CONSIDERABLE FLASH, URBAN, AND AREAL FLOODING, ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING. FLOODING WILL BE EXACERBATED IN
AREAS WHERE COASTAL AND INLAND FLOODING COMBINE TO INCREASE THE
OVERALL THREAT. IF MILTON REMAINS ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, IT WILL BE
THE WORST STORM TO IMPACT THE TAMPA AREA IN OVER 100 YEARS, PLEASE
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO. IN ADDITION, WHILE HURRICANE MILTON IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THE
FORECAST FOR POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS ALREADY TAKES
THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND THE THREAT FOR DEVASTATING WINDS,
DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE, AND CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING
REMAINS REGARDLESS OF THIS WEAKENING. KEEP CHECKING THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NHC, WPC, AND YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE FOR
THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION REGARDING MILTON INCLUDING TRACK,
INTENSITY, AND IMPACT INFORMATION.
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE
FORECAST HIGHS HAVE COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING A LONG-DURATION HEAT WAVE, AND MOST
HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED, CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HOT. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE 100S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL BE UPWARDS OF 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL REACH
AS HIGH AS THE MID-80S. AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE IN THE
MID- TO UPPER 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO MID-90S FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS. THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES
WILL BE INTO THE 80S AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE, SOME LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER NEW YORK, WITH SOME
MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CHURNS OVERHEAD. MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEE
GENERALLY SEASONABLE HIGHS FOR FALL FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, WITH 50S FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST,
60S FOR THE COASTAL NORTHEAST, 60S TO 70S FOR THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC, AND 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH. SOME AREAS
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST MAY SEE LOWS DROP
INTO THE 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. A SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY, TAPERING
OFF WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
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