767
FXUS02 KWBC 081840
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 11 2024 - 12Z TUE OCT 15 2024
..DESERT SOUTHWEST RECORD HEAT MODERATES/LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
..OVERVIEW
A LEADING NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
COAST ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS, WHILE A CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DAMPENING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THIS ENERGY SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
RAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLING TEMPS THAT
SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEEK 2 AS PER CPC ALONG WITH MORE FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST/MID- ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE OUT WEST, ONE
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
ACT TO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/PLAINS PRIOR
TO THE ADVENT OF MUCH COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES AND
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN ABOUT A WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, BUT WITH SOME TYPICAL
DETAILS DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACCORDINGLY,
THE WPC MED-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED A COMPOSITE
OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE COMPATIBLE 13 UTC NBM.
THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINS GOOD WPC CONTINUITY IN GENERALLY BENIGN
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION IN THE WAKE OF THE NOW SHORT RANGE
HIGHLIGHTED LANDFALL OF MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON INTO FLORIDA.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
IT GENERALLY REMAINS THE CASE THAT A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48
WILL SEE FAIRLY DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. A COMPACT
EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH/LOW MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST AROUND FRIDAY-
SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY REACHING
FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE WEST THEREAFTER. THEN A FRONT APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL INTO THE REGION BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE EVOLUTION SHOULD
BRING SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THE GREATEST WARM ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST WITH TIME
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY-SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST COULD SET ADDITIONAL DAILY RECORDS THOUGH
THE TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS AND THE
SHORT RANGE. THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES
REACH UP TO 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, SOME
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK UNDERNEATH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING. LATER PERIOD
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPREAD OF MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STARTING IN ABOUT A WEEK.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC MEDIUM
RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page