922
FXCA20 KWBC 081917
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 PM EDT TUE OCT 08 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 OCT 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
HURRICANE MILTON AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. AS OF THIS
WRITING...MILTON IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 155 MPH (250 KPH). CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF MILTON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COULD BE AS MUCH AS 20-40MM
WITH MAX VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 100MM. AS MILTON TRACKS
EASTWARD...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...MILTON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE NHC IS ALSO MONITORING
AN AREA OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE NHC IS STILL
INDICATING THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE LATEST NHC OUTLOOK DOES SUGGEST
THAT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST OFFICIAL
ADVISORIES AND OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NHC AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
REACH CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
CONSISTENTLY OVER 50MM...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DAILY RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...THERE IS A SFC LOW JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THIS SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SHALLOW AS IT MOVES
EAST NORTHEAST AND BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE HAS
BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 57W AND SOUTH OF 11N AND IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ITS AXIS FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 69W BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST OF THE MID LEVELS HAVE NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY...PERSISTING WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TROPICAL REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
AREAS OF HIGHER VORTICITY. THE AREAS WITH HIGHER VORTICITY ARE
BEING INDICATED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH HURRICANE
MILTON. THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT AS HURRICANE MILTON MOVES
NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME TROUGHINESS WITH WEAKER WINDS
DIGGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX OVER YUCATAN. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO YUCATAN. THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WEST TOWARDS THE ANTILLES. A
BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
MEXICO.
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARDS...BUT A BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
REGION. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EAST PACIFIC...CENTERED JUST WEST OF CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
POSITIONING OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES IN TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION...THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MILTON...PORTIONS OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ OVER THE
AREA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THERE IS HOWEVER
THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FEEDER BANDS OF MILTON POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE AREA...AND ALSO THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS OF THE
BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY AS MILTON TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AS FOLLOWS...WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD OBSERVE DAILY MAX VALUES
OF RAIN NEAR 20-50MM TODAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT MAX
VALUES OF 40-80MM ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA COULD OBSERVE DAILY RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF
10-15MM WITH MAX VALUES BETWEEN 20-50MM...TODAY AND THURSDAY BEING
THE RAINIEST DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET...WITH DAILY RAINFALL NEAR 05-10MM AND MAX VALUES NEAR
15-25MM BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ISOLATED
AREAS DUE TO LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY TO MILTON...WESTERN CUBA COULD OBSERVE UP TO 50MM WHILE
MILTON IS NEARBY FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SAME COULD BE SAID FOR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...UP TO 50MM ON
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FEEDER BANDS OF MILTON
AFFECTING THE AREA.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12
EW 11N 54W 57W 60W 63W 66W 69W 71W
ALAMO...(WPC)
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