524
FXUS01 KWBC 090800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2024
VALID 12Z WED OCT 09 2024 - 12Z FRI OCT 11 2024
...MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...
...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO MUCH OF FLORIDA
INCLUDING A DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE, DEVASTATING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS, AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING...
...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...
MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECTED IMPACTS INCLUDE A LARGE
AREA OF DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE, WITH HIGHEST INUNDATIONS OF 10
FEET OR GREATER, AND DEVASTATING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. MILTON IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE IT CROSSES THE PENINSULA BRINGING
THESE LIFE-THREATENING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS,
INLAND. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY, INCLUDING BEING
READY FOR LONG-DURATION POWER OUTAGES, SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION AS WINDS AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A
HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 4/4) WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-DAY THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES,
LOCALLY UP TO 18 INCHES, WILL BRING THE RISK OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING ALONG WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE COASTAL AND INLAND FLOODING COMBINE TO
INCREASE THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. WHILE HURRICANE MILTON IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THE
FORECAST FOR THESE LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS ALREADY TAKES THIS
INTO ACCOUNT. SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE WILL EXTEND TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY WITH
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST. SOME RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
RAIN OFF THE COAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET PRECIPITATION-WISE
OTHER THAN SOME SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. UNDER THE PRESENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S ARE EXPECTED FOR
TEXAS AND INTERIOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH 100S IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S
TO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
CONTRAST, MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE FOR
FALL, AND EVEN A BIT COOL ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE IN THE 50S IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST, THE
60S AND 70S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY, AND THE 70S AND 80S
IN THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
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