609
FXCA20 KWBC 091858
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 OCT 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MILTON. AT 15 UTC...MILTON'S CENTER WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 25.8N AND
84.3W AND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OR AT 35 DEGREES AND AT
15KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 125KT WITH GUSTS TO
150KT...AND MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE 931 HPA. MILTON DOES NOT POSE
A DIRECT THREAT TO OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH FEEDER FEEDER BAND
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. OTHER THAN MILTON...THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
CYCLONES POSING THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS THE UPPER THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH ASSOCIATES
WITH THE CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF MILTON. THIS TROUGH IS
AIDING WITH A LOWERING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE PACIFIC BASIN IN COSTA RICA. THIS AND
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IN NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR WILL LIKELY
YIELD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE...DESPITE A LARGE SCALE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MJO. THE CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF ENTER THE PACIFIC BASINS OF
COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA. THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA.
IN THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION AND NORTHWEST NICARAGUA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AND THE RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ON THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WEST PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...WHILE IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND
MOST OF NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...A TUTT-LOW
MOVING IN FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE
VENTILATION IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. WHIT WILL LIKELY
STIMULATE AGAIN THE ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTO
WEST PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN MAXIMA TO
35-70MM. IN EASTERN NICARAGUA...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR ALSO AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATION TO MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM.
OTHER THAN THIS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL CLUSTER PRIMARILY IN
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINED ENHANCE AND UPPER VENTILATION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT/DRY CONDITIOSN FOR THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN MIGRATION OF THE MOIST PLUME
ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL YIELD TO A
GENERAL DECREASING TREND. EXPECT MAXIMA IN THE 20-50MM/DAY RANGE
ON WEDNESDAY DECREASING GENERALLY TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW IN FAR SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM ON FRIDAY.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12
TW 13N 37W 40W 43W 46W 49W 52W 55W 59W 62W
EW 13N 61W 62W 65W 68W 71W 75W 79W 82W 85W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 37W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GUIANAS ON FRIDAY BUT EXPECT
LIMITED EFFECTS IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MJO.
AN ILL-DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WESTERN
COLOMBIA BY FRIDAY...TO EXERT LIMITED EFFECTS IN PRECIPITATION IN
THE REGION.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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