526
FXUS01 KWBC 092005
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2024
VALID 00Z THU OCT 10 2024 - 00Z SAT OCT 12 2024
...MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
EXPECTED IMPACTS INCLUDE A LARGE AREA OF DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE,
WITH HIGHEST INUNDATIONS OF 10 FEET OR GREATER, AND DEVASTATING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
FLORIDA. MILTON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE IT CROSSES
THE PENINSULA, BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS INLAND. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY, INCLUDING BEING READY FOR LONG-DURATION POWER OUTAGES,
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AS WINDS AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP RAPIDLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES.
MOREOVER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MILTON. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A HIGH RISK (LEVEL 4/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SEVERE, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, AREAS
THAT NORMALLY DO NOT EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING WILL FLOOD. LIVES
AND PROPERTY ARE IN GREAT DANGER.
FURTHER, SEVERAL TORNADOES, INCLUDING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES, ARE
LIKELY THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE
MILTON. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND MINIMAL THREAT OF HAIL.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
HIGH RISK (LEVEL 4/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERE, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION, AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING
WILL FLOOD. LIVES AND PROPERTY ARE IN GREAT DANGER.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED YET CONTINUES.
THEREFORE, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THURSDAY ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST
U. S. WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MOREOVER, ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
FURTHERMORE, ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ZIEGENFELDER
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