722
FXUS01 KWBC 120623
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 12 2024 - 12Z MON OCT 14 2024
...RECORD-BREAKING HEAT FORECAST THIS WEEKEND FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...
...DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE OHIO
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MEANWHILE, ANOMALOUS LATE-SEASON HEAT WILL ALSO SPAN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SQUASH THE
MOST SEARING HEAT SOUTHWARD, BRINGING SOME QUICK RELIEF TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, YET ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HEAT
IS LIKELY FROM ARIZONA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR WELL
INTO THE 90S. ELSEWHERE, UNSEASONABLE WARMTH PRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE ONLY COOLER THAN NORMAL SPOTS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND ON MONDAY INTO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT USHERS IN THE NEXT CRISP AUTUMN
AIRMASS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LARGER
REGION ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY DAMPEN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT TIMES. A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO,
ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO WEST VIRGINIA. IN FACT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK ON SUNDAY.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
ON MONDAY, COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
THROUGHOUT PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE MILTON, STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF COASTAL HAZARDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
FLORIDA. IN PARTICULAR, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY DUE TO
WEAK FLOW ALOFT, WHILE ALSO CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. AS
A RESULT, A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY IN ORDER TO BRING
CONTINUED AWARENESS TO THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SNELL
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