517
FXUS01 KWBC 121939
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 13 2024 - 00Z TUE OCT 15 2024
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY THAT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY EVENING, EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ON SUNDAY
EVENING, WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACK
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MOREOVER, AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MODERATE
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
OVER THE WEST COAST, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE LIGHT RAIN OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ZIEGENFELDER
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