099
FXUS01 KWBC 130750
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2024
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 13 2024 - 12Z TUE OCT 15 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TODAY...
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH A TRAILING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DAMPEN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF A SHARP WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY THIS EVENING,
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY TURNING SEVERE AND CONTAINING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ORDER TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA,
COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MOUNTAIN RANGES. LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE EVIDENT AS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AN AUTUMN CHILL WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN
U.S. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S, WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
ONE MORE DAY OF RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY AS MILD AIR LINGERS
SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HIGHS INTO THE 90S ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONE STAR STATE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
100S ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN ARIZONA BEFORE A LONG-AWAITED
GRADUAL COOLDOWN COMMENCES BY MONDAY. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES REORIENT EARLY THIS WEEK AND ARE MOST APPARENT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS.
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MUCH OF THE NATION
WILL BE VOID OF NOTABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOCALIZED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS
OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES
EAST AWAY FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE ON MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY EXHIBIT SLOW FORWARD MOTION WHILE CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES OVER THE SENSITIVE URBAN CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
SNELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page