565
FXUS01 KWBC 131943
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2024
VALID 00Z MON OCT 14 2024 - 00Z WED OCT 16 2024
...WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD TO OFF MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY. THE CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAVE
TRIGGERED FREEZE WARNINGS, ADVISORIES, AND WATCHES OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE RAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, WET SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS OF MICHIGAN S UPPER
PENINSULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. FURTHER, LAKE EFFECT RAIN
WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
MOREOVER, AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MODERATE
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHERMORE, A FRONT MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT. FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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