432
FXUS01 KWBC 150747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2024
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 15 2024 - 12Z THU OCT 17 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO IMPACT
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WHILE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF TEXAS TODAY AND THE NORTHERN PLAIN BY WEDNESDAY...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SPAN FROM THE MIDWEST
TO GULF COAST THIS WEEK, BEFORE GRADUALLY SETTLING OVER THE EAST
TO END THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHEAST, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONFINED TO
THE PERIPHERIES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL USHER IN
SHOWER CHANCES AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL CURRENTLY EXIST
ACROSS THE CASCADES, YELLOWSTONE REGION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
AND THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO
VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND NORTHEAST WITHIN POTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATED REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
A MID-OCTOBER CHILL WILL BE NOTICEABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH
ABOVE THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIP WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND INTO
THE 30S, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE OPPORTUNITIES BETWEEN
THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THESE AUTUMN CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
REACH THE GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
ABOVE AVERAGE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL, WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S TODAY
THREATENING DAILY RECORDS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
HOWEVER, THIS WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEMS AND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S
(20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY TERRAIN ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY.
SNELL
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