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FXCA20 KWBC 151927
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 OCT 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING TWO AREAS OF POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. ONE SYSTEM IS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 43W...THOUGH INITIALIZED AT 42W AT
12Z TODAY...KNOWN AS AL94...AND THE OTHER IS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS OF
THIS WRITING...THROUGH 7 DAYS...THE CHANCE OF FORMATION ARE 50
PERCENT FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND 20
PERCENT FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AL94 COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE
LEEWARDS INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES LATE THIS WEEK. THE SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE
NEAR 42W...ASSOCIATED WITH AL94 AND ANOTHER NEAR 75W. THERE ARE
ALSO A COUPLE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SFC LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
CURRENTLY CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN INTO THE LATTER
PARTS OF THE WEEK...AND BY THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO START
INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 75W. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AL94 WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...APPROACHING
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. THE
GFS MODEL IS VERY BULLISH WITH THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THAT BEING SAID...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE SHOW
MUCH MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND EAST PACIFIC THAN THE
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST CFS FORECAST SHOWS A
KELVIN WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOCALLY...EVEN THOUGH THE MJO IS IN A
WEAK CONVERGENT PHASE. ANOTHER AREA TO NOTE IS CUBA AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...PROMOTING LIFT AND UPWARD MOTION AHEAD
OF IT AND AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP CUBA OBSERVING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INTERACTING WITH
THE LOCAL TERRAIN. THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA COULD OBSERVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER 75W MOVES WEST AND STALLS NEAR 80W AND INTERACTS
WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
BEYOND THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12
TW 20N 42W 45W 48W 51W 54W 57W 61W 64W 67W
TW 21N 75W 77W 79W 80W DISSIPATED
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND APPROACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...CURRENTLY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INITIALIZED AT 75W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 21N.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR 80W. THERE IS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE THIS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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