046
FXUS01 KWBC 160756
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2024
VALID 12Z WED OCT 16 2024 - 12Z FRI OCT 18 2024
...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TODAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE RISK OF FIRE WEATHER INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY...
...A CHILLY MID-OCTOBER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE EAST WITH FROST
AND FREEZE CONCERNS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND APPALACHIANS...
AFTER SOME EARLY FALL WARMTH EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
WEST AND ROCKIES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS VASTLY DIFFERENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS TRAVERSING THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO USHER IN BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY EVIDENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY, BEFORE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FOCUSES OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE
GREATEST WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OVER 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST RANGES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, WESTERN WYOMING, UTAH,
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS MAY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER
DANGER AS WELL AND HAS PROMPTED RED FLAG WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND WESTERN UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ALSO APPARENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
SURGES AHEAD OF THE WESTERN U.S. SYSTEM. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S WILL PRODUCE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND INCREASE WILDFIRE DANGERS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO ISSUE A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AREA FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, SPANNING FROM
KANSAS TO SOUTH DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PUSH
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SAME COLD FRONT HAS HELPED AN AUTUMN CHILL SETTLE OVER MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES, WHILE A POTENT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO ANCHORS OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ARE FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD AND STRETCH
FROM THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY CREATE THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE
CONCERNS OF THE SEASON FOR MANY, MARKING THE TRANSITION OUT OF THE
GROWING SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S BEFORE
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SNELL
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