047
FXCA20 KWBC 161955
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 OCT 2024 AT 1930 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING TWO AREAS OF POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. ONE SYSTEM IS A
TROPICAL WAVE (AL94) CURRENTLY NEAR 49W...AND THE OTHER IS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THROUGH 7 DAYS...THE CHANCE OF FORMATION ARE 40 PERCENT
FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND 20
PERCENT FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH AL94 WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE LESSER AND
GREATER ANTILLES THIS WEEKEND...BUT COULD AFFECT THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...OTHER THAN THE TWO SYSTEMS TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND ITS RAINFALL IMPACTS
OVER LAND AREAS...THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AS WELL AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL USA
THAT IS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SFC LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS CURRENTLY
CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WORKWEEK.
THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING
INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY
INDICATING CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BY THURSDAY FROM
NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHILE REMAINING A COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THEN ON FRIDAY...THE WESTERN END
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL FRAGMENT...BUT THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL STILL BE DEFINED FROM WESTERN CUBA INTO JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING FURTHER EAST. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS MODEL IS STILL COMPARATIVELY WETTER
THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY AT THE
SAME TIME OF DAY...THERE IS CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EAST
PACIFIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
SOLUTION THE GFS PROVIDES. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST CFS FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PASSAGE OF A KELVIN WAVE OVER THE
REGION...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER PRECIPITATION. OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS...THE TROPICAL REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
UNSETTLED...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS.
EACH DAY FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DIFFERENT AREAS OF
THE TROPICAL REGION WILL HAVE MAX DAILY AMOUNTS REACHING 50MM OR
HIGHER. THE COMBINED 3-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE
AREAS WITH MOST CUMULATIVE RAIN WILL BE ISOLATED SECTORS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO BELIZE...SOME SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND A SMALL PORTION OF WESTERN CUBA.
BEYOND THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MANY AREAS WITH 50-100MM
FROM COSTA RICA NORTH INTO OAXACA AND VERACRUZ OF MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OBSERVING OVER 100MM. THERE IS CURRENTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY...AND WE ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12 20/00 20/12
TW 20N 49W 52W 55W 58W 62W 65W 68W 70W 72W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 49W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES BY THE WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...CURRENTLY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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