454  
FXUS01 KWBC 170733  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
332 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2024  
 
VALID 12Z THU OCT 17 2024 - 12Z SAT OCT 19 2024  
 
...POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM TO BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND  
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND  
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...  
 
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, RESULTING IN FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS...  
 
AS THE CALENDAR DIVES DEEPER INTO AUTUMN, COLDER STORM SYSTEMS ARE  
BEGINNING TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH WINTRY WEATHER  
CONDITIONS. THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES WILL FACE THE BRUNT  
OF NEXT PACIFIC-BRED STORM SYSTEM USHERING IN BELOW AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. A COLD  
FRONT MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL MARK THE SHARP TRANSITION TOWARD  
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THIS  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
BETWEEN TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY.  
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (MAINLY ABOVE  
7000-8000 FEET) OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, WESTERN WYOMING, UTAH,  
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS FORWARD PROGRESS AND  
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT SURGES UP THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,  
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO  
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. TRAINING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINES OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WHILE  
REMAINING OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS SETUP COULD  
PRODUCE SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR POOR  
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND URBAN REGIONS. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY IN  
ORDER TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING THREAT. ADDITIONALLY,  
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST  
AS THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS, THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT  
THROUGHOUT CALIFORNIA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS  
OF NEVADA, ARIZONA, AND CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS RED FLAG WARNINGS  
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ORDER TO HIGHLIGHT  
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER.  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO EXIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL  
U.S. TODAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDS IN PRODUCING ABOVE  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. RED FLAG WARNINGS  
SPAN FROM KANSAS TO MINNESOTA AND REITERATE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FIRES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE  
PLAINS AND MIDWEST ARE IN RELATION TO A POTENT HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THAT IS EXPECTED  
TO SETTLED OVER THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UNDERNEATH THIS  
HIGH REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND FOR SOME PLACES THE  
FIRST FROST OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN U.S.  
OUTSIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT EVEN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE  
SUNSHINE STATE MAY NEED TO BREAK OUT THE SWEATERS THE NEXT FEW  
MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY AS  
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 70S BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A SEPARATE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER BRITISH  
COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY WILL SURGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WESTERN  
WASHINGTON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN  
THE COMMONLY-DAMP OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CASCADES.  
 
SNELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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