454
FXUS01 KWBC 170733
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
VALID 12Z THU OCT 17 2024 - 12Z SAT OCT 19 2024
...POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM TO BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, RESULTING IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...
AS THE CALENDAR DIVES DEEPER INTO AUTUMN, COLDER STORM SYSTEMS ARE
BEGINNING TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH WINTRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES WILL FACE THE BRUNT
OF NEXT PACIFIC-BRED STORM SYSTEM USHERING IN BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. A COLD
FRONT MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL MARK THE SHARP TRANSITION TOWARD
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BETWEEN TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (MAINLY ABOVE
7000-8000 FEET) OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, WESTERN WYOMING, UTAH,
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS FORWARD PROGRESS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT SURGES UP THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. TRAINING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WHILE
REMAINING OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS SETUP COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND URBAN REGIONS. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY IN
ORDER TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING THREAT. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
AS THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT
THROUGHOUT CALIFORNIA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF NEVADA, ARIZONA, AND CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS RED FLAG WARNINGS
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ORDER TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO EXIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDS IN PRODUCING ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. RED FLAG WARNINGS
SPAN FROM KANSAS TO MINNESOTA AND REITERATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST ARE IN RELATION TO A POTENT HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLED OVER THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UNDERNEATH THIS
HIGH REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND FOR SOME PLACES THE
FIRST FROST OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN U.S.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT EVEN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
SUNSHINE STATE MAY NEED TO BREAK OUT THE SWEATERS THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 70S BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE, A SEPARATE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY WILL SURGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE COMMONLY-DAMP OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
SNELL
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