614
FXUS01 KWBC 171942
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 18 2024 - 00Z SUN OCT 20 2024
...POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM TO BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...
...COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, GUSTY WINDS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4-8", LOCALLY 12"+, ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AREAL MOUNTAIN RANGES
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
MPH, LOCALLY 50 MPH, CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ALONG A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH 60S TO LOW 80S FOR DESERT LOCATIONS IN
THE SOUTHWEST. MORNING LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE COVERED WITH EITHER FREEZE OR
HARD FREEZE WARNINGS AS THESE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COULD
KILL/DAMAGE CROPS AND MAY FREEZE EXTERNAL PIPES. FURTHER EAST,
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STORMS PRODUCING
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT AS TOTALS OF 2-4"+ COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING DESPITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE,
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOIST, PACIFIC FLOW INLAND ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS
OF THE OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN CASCADES, LEADING TO PERIODS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLIER
THIS WEEK, ONLY RISING INTO THE 50S TO THE NORTH AND 60S TO THE
SOUTH. MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST SOUTH THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS/OHIO
VALLEY AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FROST
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOME
FREEZE WARNINGS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. CONDITIONS HAVE MODERATED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S AND LOW 80S, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG
WARNINGS AS WELL AS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (LEVEL 2/3) REMAIN IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING A THREAT OF WILDFIRES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
WHILE AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER FALL
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AS HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE
40S AND 50S. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE
EASTERN U.S. AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY
ON SATURDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S WILL STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHEAST WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES, AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE 70S
FOR THE SOUTH AS WELL.
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