291
FXUS01 KWBC 200717
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 20 2024 - 12Z TUE OCT 22 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TONIGHT...
..RAINFALL FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY
...EXPANSIVE AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER...
AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE 1 INCH/HR RAIN RATES COULD CAUSE
RUNOFF CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS. HEAVY SNOW
IS ALSO A CONCERN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, SPECIFICALLY
THE SAN JUANS ABOVE 10,000 FEET WHERE OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW TAPERS OFF TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS.
A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE GENERATING A
PROLONGED WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY FOLLOWED BY
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROMOTE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S TODAY AND MONDAY WILL REPRESENT 20-30 DEGREE
POSITIVE ANOMALIES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO RIVAL LOW
RECORDS AS WELL. TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE CUT-OFF
LOW PROPAGATING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE WARM
AIR INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK.
KEBEDE
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