364
FXUS01 KWBC 201928
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
VALID 00Z MON OCT 21 2024 - 00Z WED OCT 23 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY TO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
IN ADDITION, THE DYNAMIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MOREOVER,
AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
MEANWHILE, ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, A FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY MOVES
INLAND TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THE CASCADES, SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY. ALSO, RAIN WILL
EXPAND ON MONDAY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
STABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, PRODUCING RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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