569
FXCA20 KWBC 221932
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 OCT 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
UNDER UPPER CONVERGENT MJO CONDITIONS...EXPECT PRECIPITATING
CONVECTION TO REMAIN DISCRETE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE.
MID-UPPER WESTERLIES HAVE ESTABLISHED NORTH OF 20N...WHICH IS
YIELDING TO A TRAIN OF PROPAGATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES ACROSS
MEXICO...GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAHAMAS/FLORIDA. ONE IF THESE
TROUGHS IS INTERACTING WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
OSCAR...DRAWING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT LIMITED EFFECTS IN PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...WHEN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA.
THIS DECREASES RAPIDLY THEREAFTER.
IN MEXICO...THE EFFECTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHS IN
PRECIPITATION ARE LIMITED GIVEN LOW AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS RAPIDLY
DECREASING...WHICH IS YIELDING TO MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMNALA INTO SOUTH VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA DECREASING TO 15-25MM...FOLLOWED BY A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WILL ALSO STIMULATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...EXPECT POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO MEANDER WESTWARD INTO
BELIZE TO PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS MEANDERING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZER A SURFACE FRONT
ACRISS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WENESDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT
THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...INAGUA...CENTRAL
CUBA. LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL YIELD TO TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS FRONT ORGANIZES. HOWEVER...IN CENTRAL AND
WEST CUBA...POCKETS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TRADE
WIND SHOWERS BY THURSDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 10MM/DAY.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA AND IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE INTO NORTHWEST VENEZUELA THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IN VENEZUELA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...AND AN INCREASE IN COLOMBIA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON TUESDAY INTO JAMAICA BY THURSDAY...TO FAVOR WET
CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES ALONG (SEE BELOW).
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12
TW 10N 40W 43W 47W 51W 55W 59W 63W 67W 71W
EW 21N 59W 63W 66W 69W 72W 75W 79W 83W 85W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 40W AND SOUTH OF 10N. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME ON WEDN
ESDAY WHERE IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN MOST OF
GUYANA...AND AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
FROM NORTHERN GUYANA INTO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO. ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 59W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY
ACROSS AND SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE...AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN NORTHWEST VENEZUELA AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
HISPANIOLA. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLOMBIA AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN JAMAICA.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA-MB BRASIL)
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