366
FXCA20 KWBC 231905
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
NOTE: THE TROPICAL DISCUSSION WILL BE PAUSED UNTIL MONDAY OCTOBER
28TH.
FORECAST BULLETIN 23 OCT 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC HAS
INDUCED THE FORMATION OF SURFACE FRONTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT A BOUNDARY ACROSS
23N 67...TURKS AND CAICOS...FAR SOUTHEAST CUBA. EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO
SOUTHEAST CUBA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
EVOLUTION...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHEAR LINE BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WHEN IT IS FORECAST ACROSS 23N 60W...SOUTHEAST DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ON WEDNESDAY...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS TO THE NORTH. BY
THURSDAY...AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ALONG THE FRONT...WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY FRIDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND MAXIMA OF 15MM DEVELOPING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN PUERTO RICO.
A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A TRADE WIND SURGE THAT IS RAPIDLY GAINING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT IT
ALONG 55-56W. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE SURGE TO START TO
DISSIPATE WHILE PROPAGATING NEAR 68-69W. NOTE THAT A TROPICAL WAVE
IS PROPAGATING AS WELL CLOSE TO THE SURGE AXIS...BUT IT IS AN
INDEPENDENT FEATURE (SEE BELOW FOR POSITIONS AND IMPACTS). AS THE
SURGE CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 15MM/DAY
ON THURSDAY.
SEASONALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN CENTRAL AMERICA PARTLY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER CONVERGENT MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION. HOWEVER...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WESTWARD...BEING
TRAILED BY AN EASTERLY WAVE AND THEN BY A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL
YIELD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE
WEEKEND. INITIALLY...ENHANCED NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN HONDURAS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. YET...ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECT
A VERY CONSERVATIVE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE MOIST POOL
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. IN
NORTHWEST HONDURAS...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. BY FRIDAY...EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF THE
EASTERLY WAVE. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/NORTHERN
COSTA RICA. IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND MOST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12
TW 11N 46W 53W 57W 61W 65W 68W 72W 76W 80W
EW 15N 64W 68W 72W 76W 79W 83W 86W 89W 92W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 46W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. THE
WAVE IS PROPAGATING IN UNISON WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE AND ITS
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME ON
WEDNESDAY...MAXIMA OF20-35MM IN GUYANA/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ON THURSDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND FAR EASTERN COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 64W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED...IT IS FORECAST TO REGAIN
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF20-45MM IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION IN COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS TO FAVOR MAXIMA IN THE
15-45MM/DAY RANGE.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
JACKMAN...(BMS BARBADOS)
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