552
FXCA20 KWBC 281910
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 OCT 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION...DUE TO THE INCOMING DIVERGENT MJO
ENTERING THE AMERICAS THIS WEEK. THE MJO DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE VENTILATION ALOFT FOR SYSTEMS THAT ARE SEEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ACCORDING TO THE CFS MODEL...THE CURRENT RUNS ARE
SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF THE DIVERGENCE INTO MIDDLE NOVEMBER.Â
ON MONDAY...A RIDGING PATTERN IS LOCATED OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE PRESENCE OF
AN UPPER JET OVER THE NORTH CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REGION...DEEPENING A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE PRESENCE OF A FEW
PROPAGATING TROUGHS ARE LOCATED IN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND
FURTHER EAST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING OVER DRIER
CONDITIONS. WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRESENT FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS INTO HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR...AND ENTERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. OF NOTE IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH
IS ACTIVE IN SECTORS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON MONDAY EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL VERACRUZ AND FROM EAST YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO BELIZE AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS. ALONG THE EASTERN
COASTS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...NORTH PANAMA...AND THE AZUERO
PENINSULA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON TUESDAY...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM EAST...FAVORING CONVERGENCE IN THE PENINSULA. TO THE
SOUTH...A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CIRCULATION OF THE
PANAMANIAN TROUGH...FAVORING THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE
PANAMANIANÂTROUGH. ITS EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA TO COLOMBIA. THE SET UP WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AÂLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW OVER
REGIONS OF WEST COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND EXTEND INTO PORTIONS
OF COLOMBIA...WHILE ALSO REACHING EXTREME EAST HONDURAS...EAST
NICARAGUA...AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...QUINTANA ROO AND NORTH BELIZE CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE THE WEST YUCATAN PENINSULA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. FROM EAST COSTA RICA TO NORTHWEST
PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH THE PANAMANIAN LOW IN THE
REGION. FROM PORTIONS OF EAST HONDURAS/EAST NICARAGUA...TO WEST
COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWEST PANAMA...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN THE WEST CARIBBEAN COULD FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ONSHORE FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
COULD TRIGGER THE BEGINNING OF A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...WITH LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW FROM WEST COSTA RICA INTO
PANAMA...COULD ALSO EXTEND INTO COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND THAT
COULD AFFECT HOW MUCH INLAND THE EXTENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. FROM THE OSA
PENINSULA TO THE AZUERO PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM DUE TO
THE MOIST LONG FETCH AND ONSHORE FLOW ENTERING THE REGION. IN THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. EAST NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
OVER THE NORTH CARIBBEAN...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER
HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CAN FAVOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...THE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE DOMINATING AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGING OVER THE REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL WEAKEN...AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE NORTH CARIBBEAN
WILL DEEPEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...BRINGING COLDER AIR OVER THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. BY
WEDNESDAY...THIS UPPER TROUGH REACHES HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXTENDS INTO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO/VI. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE PROGRESSED INTO THE
REGION...TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH
CARIBBEAN.ÂIN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON MONDAY...MAXIMA OF
35-70MM ARE EXPECTED IN EXTREME EAST CUBA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NORTH
JAMAICA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. BY TUESDAY...THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONTINUE IN THE REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN EAST
CUBA...25-50MM IN NORTHEAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHILE NORTH
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
CARIBBEAN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM NORTH HAITI INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH SOUTH HAITI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. PUERTO RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM AS THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH REACHES THE ISLANDS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MONDAY SEEMS TO BE PRESENT AS THE DAY
WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY FOR PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST
IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVER
THE GUIANAS AND NORTHEAST BRASIL. ON MONDAY...EAST ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE NORTH PERU AND WEST-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ON TUESDAY...A TROUGH IN THE TRADE WINDS OVER
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN COLOMBIA...AND
EAST VENEZUELA.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00 31/12 01/00 01/12
TW 13N 36W 39W 41W 44W 46W 50W 53W 55W 57W
TW 16N 84W 87W 90W 93W 95W 97W 99W 101W 103W
EW 21N 94W 95W 97W 99W 101W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED AT 36W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IMPACTS
FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OCEAN WATERS
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED AT 84W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN BELIZE AND SOUTH
QUINTANA ROO...WHILE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN EL SALVADOR. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE MOVES WEST AND EXTENDS INTO
SOUTHERN CHIAPAS AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. CHIAPAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE WAVE INTO SOUTHERN
OAXACA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS LOCATED AT 94W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...OVER
CENTRAL VERACRUZ...INTO EAST OAXACA. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
VERACRUZ CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER GUERRERO INTO MICHOACAN...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY WEDNESDAY THE WAVE IS DISSIPATED.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
JACKMAN...(BMS BARBADOS)
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