976
FXUS01 KWBC 281957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2024
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 29 2024 - 00Z THU OCT 31 2024
...DEVELOPING WESTERN STORM TO BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...RECORD WARMTH AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPAND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANTECEDENT WARMTH
AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS TO START,
BUT COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AIDED BY A
SIGNIFICANT TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE HIGH COUNTRY OF WYOMING, COLORADO, AND UTAH. THOSE TRAVELING
ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL WANT TO CHECK THE FORECAST BEFORE
HEADING OUT AND BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM, FREEZE CONCERNS RETURN TO SOME OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS, AN ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING WARM AND MOISTURE RICH AIR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE OF GREATEST CONCERN,
WITH A TORNADO OR TWO NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY, WHICH EXTENDS FROM PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FOR
WEDNESDAY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COVERS FROM PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY, AND
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 4) TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AHEAD OF THE SAME COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK, A SURGE OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S FROM THE NATION'S MIDSECTION
TO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO ECLIPSE THE
90 DEGREE MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEING
COMMON. COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS WHERE FUELS REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THE LATE OCTOBER WARMTH SPREADS
EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT
LEAST HALLOWEEN. NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MILLER
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