073
FXUS06 KWBC 291902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE OCTOBER 29 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 04 - 08 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A MORE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE
ALEUTIANS, WHILE RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. CONVERSELY, ABOVE-NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. CHANCES EXCEED 80% FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
CONVERSELY, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. IN ALASKA,
TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS FAVORS INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA LEADING TO ELEVATED ODDS OF NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS
OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST ODDS (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR A
STATIONARY FRONT TO SET-UP ACROSS THE REGION. PARTS OF THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
TILTS TOWARDS NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE EAST COAST. IN ALASKA, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE ALASKA REGION
TENDS TO FAVOR STORMIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII DUE TO THE
NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 12 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS
WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS (+30 METERS) ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS MORE RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE REGION REPRESENTING A QUICK TRANSITION FROM THE PRIOR PERIOD.
WEAK BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AS
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE TRANSIENT OVER THOSE AREAS. TROUGHING AND
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF CONUS DURING WEEK-2
BENEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST OVER
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS DUE TO THE BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND AND PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS UNDERNEATH
INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. HAWAII CONTINUES TO
TILT STRONGLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH THE ECENS AND
GEFS REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION.
MUCH OF THE EASTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TILTS TOWARDS NEAR TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WEEK-2 DUE TO MORE TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL FEATURES,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY RESULTING IN GENERALLY LOWER PROBABILITIES.
ODDS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL REGIONS DUE TO A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. TROUGHING OVER
ALASKA FAVORS A PERSISTENT STORMY PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE, SUPPORTED BY MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAUAI, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA,
OFFSET BY DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20051101 - 20031108 - 19561010 - 19891013 - 19581013
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20031107 - 20051104 - 19561010 - 19611019 - 19581012
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 04 - 08 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 12 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N A
UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page