882
FXCA20 KWBC 291912
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 OCT 2024 AT 1915 UTC:
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO COLOMBIA...THE
PANAMANIAN TROUGH IS ACTIVE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE PANAMANIAN
TROUGH...THE REGION CAN EXPECT AN ENHANCED CIRCULATION THAT COULD
DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN PORTION OF COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO PRESENT AS A
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE. WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MJO...HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM NICARAGUA TO WEST COLOMBIA. ON
THURSDAY...HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THE CIRCULATION MEANDERS TO THE
EAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...EXPECT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO FAVOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST COSTA RICA...WHILE THE REGIONS OF COSTA RICA AND
WEST PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY...FROM SOUTH COSTA RICA TO
PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE PORTIONS OF WEST
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 30-60MM. FROM NICARAGUA TO
NORTH COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS NORTH COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF 75-125MM ARE EXPECTED IN EAST
PANAMA. WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. FROM COSTA
RICA TO WEST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH COLOMBIA INTO
ECUADOR.
IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...ON TUESDAY...THE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE FAVORING
STORMS OVER THE REGION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THESE ARE ENHANCED
BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER JET PROVIDING VENTILATION ON TUESDAY.
TO THE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ENTERING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CUBA...WHILE THE
DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS PRESENTING OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND PUERTO RICO/VI. THE WIND DIRECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST TO MOSTLY EAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EAST DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME
LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. BY
THURSDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY FROM THE EAST...WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND INTO HISPANIOLA. WITH THE HIGH
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND POTENTIAL FOR JET COUPLING
OVER THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
FROM NORTH HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO/VI. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN EAST CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WHILE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH BAHAMAS AND
INTO TURKS AND CAICOS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES CAN
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN PUERTO RICO/VI...WHILE NORTH HISPANIOLA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
BELOW 25MM. ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
INCREASES IN PUERTO RICO/VI AND HISPANIOLA. MAXIMA OF 50-100MM ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO/VI...WHILE NORTH HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. THE NORTH LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...WHILE EAST CUBA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTH
MEXICO...THE PRESENCE OF TROUGHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SECTIONS OF
BELIZE/GUATEMALA WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN QUINTANA ROO...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE
REST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH MAXIMA OF
20-40MM FROM QUINTANA ROO INTO NORTH BELIZE...AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO GUATEMALA. ON THURSDAY THE
REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ADVECTED FROM THE
EAST...AND RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. FROM EAST VENEZUELA...INTO
THE GUIANAS AND NORTH BRASIL EXPECT...GENERALIZED ISOLATED MAXIMA
BELOW 25MM/DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 30/00 30/12 31/00 31/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12
EW 13N 47W 50W INDUCED
TW 17N 92W 94W 96W 97W DISS
EW 14N 97W 100W 105W DISS
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS LOCATED AT 47W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. BY WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED
BY THE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH...WHERE IT WILL ACT AS AN INDUCED
TROUGH AND STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY. IMPACTS
FROM THIS EASTERLY WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OCEAN WATERS
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED AT 92W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE MOVES WEST AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN CHIAPAS
AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. CHIAPAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE WAVE INTO SOUTHERN OAXACA...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS LOCATED AT 97W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EFFECTS FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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