392   
FXUS01 KWBC 300757  
PMDSPD  
  
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
356 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2024  
  
VALID 12Z WED OCT 30 2024 - 12Z FRI NOV 01 2024  
  
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND  
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH A SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF THE  
UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY...  
  
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS  
OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON  
WEDNESDAY...  
  
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN QUEBEC, CANADA, BY FRIDAY.  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT  
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, RAIN  
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ENDING BY  
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
  
ON WEDNESDAY, MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS WILL  
EXTEND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, CREATING SHOWERS AND SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE,  
THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.   
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES.  
  
MOREOVER, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF  
COAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SIMILARLY, EASTERLY FLOW OFF  
THE ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN  
INCREASED THREAT OF EF2 †EF5 TORNADOES OVER THE AREAS.  
  
FURTHERMORE, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT  
OVER PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4)  
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.   
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY  
RAIN.  
  
ON THURSDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DECREASE TO STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL  
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT  
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A  
FEW TORNADOES.  
  
FURTHER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER  
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THEREFORE,  
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS  
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING.  THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL  
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT  
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION, ONSHORE FLOW  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST AND  
FLORIDA.  
  
MOREOVER, THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER PARTS  
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS  
OF MINNESOTA, EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. ALL THESE AREAS WILL BE NEAR  
LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY.   
  
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY, DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY  
EVENING. FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL  
PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST  
INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ON THURSDAY, THE SNOW WILL  
BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND  
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.   
  
ZIEGENFELDER  
  
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
  
  
 
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