779
FXUS01 KWBC 300808
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2024
VALID 12Z WED OCT 30 2024 - 12Z FRI NOV 01 2024
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH A SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN QUEBEC, CANADA, BY FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ENDING BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY, MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, CREATING SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF EF2 TO EF5 TORNADOES OVER THE
AREAS.
FURTHERMORE, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
ON THURSDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DECREASE TO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION, ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA.
MOREOVER, THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS
OF MINNESOTA, EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. ALL THESE AREAS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY, DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY
EVENING. FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ON THURSDAY, THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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