436
FXUS01 KWBC 310749
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
VALID 12Z THU OCT 31 2024 - 12Z SAT NOV 02 2024
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, WITH A SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY FRIDAY. THE
TRAILING FRONT MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING, WHILE THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/EASTERN
OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC.
ON THURSDAY, MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES, CREATING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THEREFORE,
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS
OF MINNESOTA, EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. FURTHERMORE, RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT FROM CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALSO, ON FRIDAY, ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA.
ON FRIDAY, THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES
FURTHER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY,
THE SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES, SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page