653
FXCA20 KWBC 311841
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 31 OCT 2024 AT 1830 UTC:
ON THURSDAY...THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPERIENCING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE PRESENCE OF AND
UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTH CARIBBEAN...WHILE A CENTRAL AMERICAN
GYRE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST
CARIBBEAN.
IN THE SOUTHERN REGION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH NORTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THIS CIRCULATION IS AFFECTING THE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC
REGIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AIDED BY THE LOCATION OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/PANAMA. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE PACIFIC ENHANCES THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTRIES. IN ADDITION...THE LOW
LEVEL JETS TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINS OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS.
SIMILARLY...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO BELIZE AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHERE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...ENHANCED BY THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA
AND ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...AFFECTING THE SAME REGIONS AS
THURSDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LOW CONFIDENCE BETWEEN
MODELS AS TO SOME FEATURES THAT COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN
THE REGION AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS
SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO MEANDER
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON
THURSDAY...FROM SOUTH COSTA RICA INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. FROM BELIZE TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND NORTH HONDURAS
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SLIGHTLY LESS
AMOUNTS OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. BY
FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS
CONDITIONS ENHANCE FOR THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE. SOUTHERN REGIONS
OF GUATEMALA TO NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS NORTH COSTA RICA WILL SEE
AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM. BY SATURDAY...THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN THE REGION NORTH OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-150MM FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
COSTA RICA TO THE AZUERO PENINSULA IN PANAMA. SIMILARLY ALONG THE
DARIEN REGION IN PANAMA AND COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.
NORTH COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE ITCZ/NET AND FAVORABLE ON SHORE FLOW. SIMILARLY...WEST
COLOMBIA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM IN EAST NICARAGUA AS WELL AS FROM QUINTANA ROO TO
BELIZE AND NORTHEAST HONDURAS.
IN THE NORTH CARIBBEAN...THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE AND WEAKER
LOW LEVEL TROUGHS AND BOUNDARIES ARE ASSISTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROVIDING THE VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER PUERTO
RICO/VI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ACTIVATING SEVERE WEATHER IN THE REGION...AS SHOWN
BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 15 UTC THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN THE REGION...WITH PUERTO
RICO/VI EXPECTED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR AN
INDUCED TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO AND BEGIN PROPAGATING TO THE WEST
AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES INTO EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.
AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TILT NEGATIVELY OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO...WITH INCREASED DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS...AND INTO TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTH
BAHAMAS...WHERE EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...SIMILAR TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDUCED TROUGH WHERE SOME
MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION WHILE OTHERS ARE SUGGESTING
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AS AN INDUCED TROUGH LIKELY TO JOIN WITH
THE CAG BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER REGIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
ON SATURDAY...WHILE INCREASING OVER CUBA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND TURKS AND CAICOS. ON THURSDAY...HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER PUERTO RICO/VI IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMA OF
75-125MM WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AND A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON
SATURDAY...RAIN ACTIVITY PROPAGATES TO THE WEST...AS HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
TURKS AND CAICOS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH THE PROPAGATION
OF THE INDUCED TROUGH. CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH THE PRESENCE
OF DRY AIR IN THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS TO THE
EAST WITH MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO PORTIONS OF VERACRUZ...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TO THE SOUTH IN GUERRERO/OAXACA. THE
VERACRUZ REGION CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM/DAY OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN
BELOW 25MM/DAY.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE WILL REMAIN IN COLOMBIA...WHILE FROM EAST VENEZUELA
TO THE GUIANAS...MOISTURE IS DECREASING WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR. THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH VENEZUELA
EXTENDS INTO NORTH BRASIL...WHICH WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25MM FROM SOUTH VENEZUELA TO AMAZONAS...RORAIMA AND EAST
PARA. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER VENEZUELA. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH VENEZUELA TO NORTH AMAZONAS.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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