311
FXUS06 KWBC 311901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 31 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 10 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A MORE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE
ALEUTIANS, WHILE RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
OVER MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED
BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
U.S. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. CHANCES EXCEED 70% FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SEABOARD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. IN ALASKA, TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS FAVORS INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA LEADING TO ELEVATED ODDS OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS. PREDICTED TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER
THE ALASKA REGION TENDS TO FAVOR STORMIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
HAWAII DUE TO THE NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 14 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS
WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS (+30 METERS) ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE CONUS DURING WEEK-2
BENEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. CHANCES EXCEED 60% FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS
UNDERNEATH INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. HAWAII
CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH THE ECENS
AND GEFS REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION.
ODDS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS , AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA DUE TO AN INFLUENCE
FROM RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SEABOARD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA FAVORS A PERSISTENT STORMY
PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII UNDER
NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA,
OFFSET BY DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19561025 - 19721104 - 19941107 - 19881114 - 19941114
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19561025 - 19711016 - 20041022 - 20031108 - 19881113
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 10 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH N N ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 14 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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