135
FXUS01 KWBC 010813
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2024
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 01 2024 - 12Z SUN NOV 03 2024
...THREAT OF A HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT INCREASING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
HEAVY RAIN TODAY NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WITH LITTLE RAIN IN SIGHT ALONG THE
EAST COAST...
A TRAILING COLD FRONT IN CONNECTION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON THIS FIRST
DAY OF NOVEMBER FOLLOWING AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY OCTOBER FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN WILL NOT
PROGRESS MUCH BEYOND THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AS ANOTHER DAY OF WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST. IN FACT, THE
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY
CHALLENGED HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER IN UPSTATE NEW
YORK. IN ADDITION, RECORD HIGH MORNING LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND AND RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM NEAR NEW YORK CITY
TO NORTHERN MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE LESS RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY, WIDESPREAD ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN U.S.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NOVEMBER. ATTENTION WILL THEN
FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EMERGING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AS MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
RETURNS AND STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
BEFORE SPREADING MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
THEN INTERACT WITH THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIFT THE MOISTURE OVER A WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW INCHES OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SIMILAR TO MANY AREAS OF THE LOWER 48, THIS REGION IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL HELP ALEVIATE THE DROUGHT, THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON THIS UPCOMING HEAVY
RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
KONG
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