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FXCA20 KWBC 011859
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT FRI NOV 01 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 NOV 2024 AT 1830 UTC:
IN THE NORTH CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
REMAINING OVER THE OCEAN...AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILARLY POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE TROUGH DEVELOPS
A CUTOFF LOW OVER PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA WHILE A SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CUBA AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...A DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION OVER PUERTO RICO FROM AN
INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PROPAGATING TO THE WEST AND
INTO HISPANIOLA BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FAVORABLE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST TO REACH PORTIONS OF NORTH
HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EAST HISPANIOLA.
FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE NORTH LEEWARD ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH CUBA AND TURKS
AND CAICOS WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE LLJ. ON SATURDAY...THE TROUGH
IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE WEST INTO HAITI
AND TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTH BAHAMAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CUBA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE PRESENCE OF LLJ THAT WILL FAVOR THE
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND MOISTURE CONVERGE ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
SIMILARLY...NORTH HISPANIOLA WILL SEE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT...FAVORING MODERATE CONVECTION. ON THIS
DAY...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE IN HOW CONSISTENT THEY ARE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROPAGATING INDUCED TROUGH. SOME MODELS
ARE FAVORING THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...ORGANIZING OVER HISPANIOLA AND PROPAGATING
WESTWARD...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE TROUGH AS AN INDUCED TROUGH THAT
DOES NOT CLOSE INTO A LOW YET CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WEST. THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE PERTURBATION ALSO DIFFERS DUE TO SOME
MODELS PROPAGATING THE WAVE FASTER THAN OTHERS. IN ADDITION...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE TO THE SOUTH COULD AFFECT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDUCED TROUGH AND WE MAY EXPECT IT TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE CAG LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM NORTH CUBA INTO
NORTH HISPANIOLA. POTENTIAL FOR MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO JAMAICA
AND HISPANIOLA CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE THE SOUTH
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO SIMILAR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...A GENERALIZED WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER PORTIONS OF EAST CUBA AND
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AS A CONNECTION WITH THE CAG IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT DECREASE COULD BE EXPECTED IN THE
REGION DUE TO THE NORTHWARD POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH BAHAMAS...TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND NORTHEAST CUBA...AS WELL AS JAMAICA. A POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. SIMILARLY...CONFIDENCE IN
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA BASED ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE INDUCED TROUGH AND THE EFFECTS OF THE CAG TO
THE SOUTH. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH
HAITI...ALTHOUGH A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE.
PUERTO RICO AND NORTH LEEWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE CIRCULATION NORTH OF
PANAMA/COSTA RICA IS ORGANIZING ON FRIDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. THE
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ IN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...WHICH IS FAVORING LONG FETCH MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW.
PORTIONS OF WEST COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE
LONG FETCH REACHING ITS COASTS AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE
REGION AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE THE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS INTO A CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE. THE INTERACTION OF THE CAG WITH THE INDUCED TROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND HAS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL TO TROUGH AND IF AN ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTH CARIBBEAN. IN GENERAL...A NORTH AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION
IS EXPECTED WHILE THE MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN HIGH. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ASSIST IN THIS
PROPAGATION AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER
CUBA AND EXTEND INTO EXTREME EAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BY SUNDAY
EVENING/MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER COSTA RICA/PANAMA OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...ON FRIDAY...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. FROM NORTH COSTA RICA INTO WEST
NICARAGUA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. EAST NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
FORMING CAG. MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED IN WEST COLOMBIA. ON
SATURDAY...AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS. COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM.
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH A CHANCE OF
HIGHER RAINFALL MAXIMA. BY SUNDAY...SOUTH COSTA RICA TO THE AZUERO
PENINSULA IN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 100-200MM WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE
GULF OF PANAMA REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 60-125MM. ELSEWHERE IN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...HOWEVER DEEPENING ON THE LOCATION
OF THE CIRCULATION...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN
NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
OTHER REGIONS OF SOUTH MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SEE THE
PRESENCE OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35MM. SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR COULD SEE INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON FRIDAY
WHICH MAY FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH IN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA AND INTO AMAZONAS IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TO THE EAST...THE
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE...YET THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL
TROUGHS IN THE REGION. MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35MM FROM
SOUTH VENEZUELA...SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND INTO EAST
PERU/AMAZONAS-BRASIL OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN THE
GUIANAS...MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20MM OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
TW 13N 35W 37W 39W 42W 45W 47W 49W 51W 53W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 35W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST REGION.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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