651
FXSA20 KWBC 011901
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT FRI NOV 01 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 01 NOV 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONE IS SUSTAINING
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN PATAGONIA/TIERRA DEL FUEGO ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A STING JET WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE THE DESCENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
10 METER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH SPEEDS OF 50-65KT. EXPECT AS
WELL A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF 50S...WHICH
WILL LIKELY YIELD TO SCATTERED SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 01-04CM. TO
THE NORTH...THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE
ACROSS NORTHERN PATAGONIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/LA PAMPA/SAN LUIS...EXPECT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL WITH FORECAST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PROPAGATE INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARGENTINA TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
IN MID-SECTIONS OF THE CONTINENT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY
CROSSING THE ALTIPLANO AND IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIR MASS
LOCATED TO ITS EAST. NOTE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 50MM
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM THE PANTANAL/NORTHERN
PARAGUAY INTO ACRE AND RONDONIA IN WESTERN BRASIL. THE
SLOW-TO-PROGRESS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN LOW SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE REGION...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODS WITH ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL YIELD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY WITH A RISK OF NOCTURNAL MCS
FORMATION IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARAGUAY...WHILE IN BOLIVIA AND
WEST BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY EXPECT A
CONTINUED RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARAGUAY AND WEST MATO GROSSO
DO SUL WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. TO THE EAST EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM IN PARANA/MATO GROSSO DO SUL AND WESTERN SAO
PAULO/WESTERN MINAS GERAIS. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST BRAZIL FROM SANTA CATARINA TO
MATO GROSSO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ANOTHER ROBUST TROUGH EXTENDS NEAR 105W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 40S.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE CONTINENT.
IT WILL START TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CHILE BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
COMPLETELY CROSS THE ANDES BY MIDDAY MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER AUSTRAL CHILE BY LATE SATURDAY...TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN AYSEN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR CUMULUS TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN CONCEPCION AND NORTHERN AYSEN WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. NOTE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ISLA CHILOE SOUTH INTO TIERRA DEL FUEGO WITH THIS SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. ALSO ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR A LOWERING OF
THE PRESSURES IN PATAGONIA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL STIMULATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE NORTH. A A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THIS AIR MASS...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CORDOBA INTO THE RIO DE LA PLATA AND
POTENTIAL MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NOTE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERITY.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
ALAMO...(WPC)
LOPEZ...(DMH-PARAGUAY)
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