548
FXUS06 KWBC 011902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI NOVEMBER 01 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A MORE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED
BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. CHANCES EXCEED 70% FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TOOLS. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA, AND WESTERN
TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. PREDICTED TROUGHING
OVER ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA LEADING TO ELEVATED ODDS OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS
AND ECENS REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO THE RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED
ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE ALASKA REGION TENDS TO
FAVOR STORMIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII DUE TO THE NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS
ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
ALASKA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING
WEEK-2 BENEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA
FAVORS INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS
UNDERNEATH INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. HAWAII
CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH THE ECENS
AND GEFS REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION.
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, DUE TO AN INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA FAVORS A PERSISTENT STORMY
PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII UNDER
NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA,
OFFSET BY DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19711016 - 19941115 - 19721104 - 20031108 - 19511022
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721104 - 19711016 - 19511023 - 19881113 - 19601112
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE N B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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