746
FXUS01 KWBC 021945
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EDT SAT NOV 02 2024
VALID 00Z SUN NOV 03 2024 - 00Z TUE NOV 05 2024
...FREQUENT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
AN ACTIVE AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN IS POISED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING
THE NATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT
PARTS OF THE WEST. A GRADUALLY LIFTING WARM FRONT SPANNING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP
FUNNEL AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE,
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
DRYLINE WILL SQUEEZE THE THUNDERSTORM FOCUS EAST INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING EVEN
MORE EASTWARD BY MONDAY TO INCLUDE PARTS OF MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
STORMS WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
OCCUR OVER SIMILAR REGIONS. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE, URBAN AND
LOW-LYING LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID WATER RISES AND FLOODED
ROADWAYS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO NEVER
UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF WATER AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPIATION THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRIOR TO A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
SNOW WILL BE COMMON, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FROM
THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON CASCADES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH
AND WYOMING. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CHANCES (>80%) FOR OVER 8
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN CASCADES ON MONDAY. BE SURE TO PREPARE FOR WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS IF TRAVELING THROUGHOUT THESE ELEVATED MOUNTAIN RANGES
AND STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST.
WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BESIDES RAIN CHANCES
ENTERING PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY
MONDAY, USHERING IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY, WITH 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. WHEN
COMPARED TO EARLY NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY, THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY.
SNELL
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