746
FXUS01 KWBC 031936
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EST SUN NOV 03 2024
VALID 00Z MON NOV 04 2024 - 00Z WED NOV 06 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WIND QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS WEEK...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND EAST COAST...
THE ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN TEXAS, CENTRAL TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA,
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AS WELL AS
A FEW TORNADOES INTO MONDAY CENTERED AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS A
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ANCHORS OVER THE REGION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ORDER TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
MORE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
SPREADING MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
FARTHER EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS
OKLAHOMA BUT SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION, MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW PASSING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD THE NEXT ROUND OF COASTAL RAIN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD DOSE OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW FARTHER INLAND ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL REACH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REDEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE GREATEST CHANCES (>80%) FOR OVER 8
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN CASCADES ON MONDAY AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. BE
SURE TO PREPARE FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IF TRAVELING
THROUGHOUT THESE ELEVATED MOUNTAIN RANGES AND STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST.
WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BESIDES RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY MONDAY, USHERING IN
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY
THIS WEEK, WITH 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. WHEN COMPARED TO
EARLY NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY, THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO THE EAST COAST BY
ELECTION DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SNELL
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