832
FXUS01 KWBC 040813
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST MON NOV 04 2024
VALID 12Z MON NOV 04 2024 - 12Z WED NOV 06 2024
...MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TO THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY...
...NEXT ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WIND WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY, ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY, AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT...
...WATCHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WHICH
IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND EAST COAST...
THE ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS, MUCH OF MISSOURI AND INTO
ILLINOIS. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES ARE MOSTLY
LIKELY. MORE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
SPREADING MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONSOLIDATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT FARTHER
EASTWARD BY TONIGHT, ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS OKLAHOMA
BUT THEN SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION, MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN WITH TIME, LEADING TO A LESSENING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING
TO EXIT THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS TODAY, MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF WHILE MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER
NEW MEXICO WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. A RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD THE
NEXT ROUND OF COASTAL RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A GOOD DOSE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW FARTHER INLAND ALONG WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL THEN REACH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
GREATEST CHANCES (>80%) FOR OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A 24-HOUR
PERIOD IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. BE SURE TO PREPARE FOR WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS IF TRAVELING THROUGHOUT THESE ELEVATED MOUNTAIN RANGES
AND STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO BLANKET THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BEHIND A POLAR FRONT.
WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BESIDES RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE, USHERING IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY
THIS WEEK, WITH 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. WHEN COMPARED TO
EARLY NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY, THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO THE EAST COAST BY
ELECTION DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
IN THE MEAN TIME, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAS BEGUN
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN (PTC 18)
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING INCREASING WINDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUTER RAINBANDS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THEN. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST ADVISORY ON PTC 18.
KONG
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