151
FXUS06 KWBC 042001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON NOVEMBER 04 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 14 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 500-HPA TROUGH (RIDGE)
OVER THE WESTERN (EASTERN) CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN AND THE
MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND USED CLOSE TO AN EQUAL WEIGHTING OF THE THREE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
DEPARTURES FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW TILTS THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW
AND PREDICTED MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD SUPPORT INCREASED
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE ECENS FEATURES 5-DAY TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE
EAST COAST AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE LARGEST FOR THOSE
AREAS.
THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST TO THE WESTERN CONUS BY DAY 8. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS PREDICTED PATTERN
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE GENERALLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE CONUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE MODEST DUE TO PROGRESSIVE FLOW. ALSO, THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE 5-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS. THE
ECENS PREDICTS MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE GEFS IS MUCH DRIER.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAS INITIALIZED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA. NHC INDICATES THAT TD18 BECOMES A
HURRICANE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE GEFS DEPICT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST PRIOR TO DAY 6 (NOV 10) OR EVEN
DISSIPATING, WHILE THE 0Z ECENS DEPICTS THIS TC TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY. REGARDLESS, THIS TC IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS ENHANCED LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WHICH IS ANOTHER
FACTOR IN FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE SPATIAL EXTENT.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE AGREE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
ALASKA WHICH FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. CONSISTENT WITH A LEAN TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PREDICTED NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR INTERIOR MAINLAND ALASKA. THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 18 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE MAINTAIN THE ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE A MEAN RIDGE ALOFT IS PREDICTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
EAST COAST. THE 6Z GEFS IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH ALONG WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE PREDICTED STORM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES, AND AN ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
SINCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND MAY
RESTRENGTHEN LATER IN WEEK-2, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. THE 7-DAY MSLP FROM THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A STORM TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF A PAIR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE ECENS AND CMCE ARE MUCH WETTER THAN THE GEFS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. BASED ON THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE
MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND, THE COVERAGE OF FAVORED WETNESS IN THE AUTOMATED
AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS WERE REDUCED WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURE TOOLS GENERALLY FAVOR A WARMING TREND ACROSS ALASKA FROM THE 6-10
TO 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, INITIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE, WEAKENS AND WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE ALONG WITH THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING SEA AND MULTIPLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING EASTWARD SUPPORT ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGHOUT ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, 3
OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19531118 - 19711016 - 19981016 - 19581116 - 20041028
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19641112 - 19531117 - 20041029 - 19561116 - 19571114
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 14 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 18 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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