694
FXCA20 KWBC 042008
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EST MON NOV 04 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 04 NOV 2024 AT 2000 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON THE
CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN. THIS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NEAR 325 KM SOUTH OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA...IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. BASED ON
THE INTENSITY FORECAST...TD EIGHTEEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...THEN A HURRICANE SOMETIME
ON WEDNESDAY...AS IT MOVES NORTH THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE FORECAST TRACK...TD EIGHTEEN IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT JAMAICA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WESTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...THE LATEST 3-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST
INDICATES THAT AS MUCH AS 100-150MM OF RAIN COULD BE OBSERVED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...SOUTHERN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...SOUTHERN CUBA AND WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF RAIN COULD BE OBSERVED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 150MM OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI...WHILE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF OVER 200MM COULD BE OBSERVED
OVER JAMAICA. IT IS WORTH CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST. FOR THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST ADVISORIES OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
THERE IS ALSO A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
TOTAL RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY THIS WEEK. THE LATEST
3-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS INDICATES LOCALIZED MAXIMA
OF 100-150MM OF RAIN OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA...BUT AS MUCH AS
175MM OR HIGHER COULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS IN COSTA
RICA. TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY OVER THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA REGION...WITH THE 24-HR RAINFALL FORECAST
ACCUMULATION DECREASING EACH DAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR
TODAY...THE RAINFALL MAXIMA OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 50-100MM...TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WOULD BE AROUND 30-60MM...AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WOULD BE NEAR 25-50MM.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WOULD HAVE RAINFALL THAT MAY BE HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL PATTERNS AND A FEW SURFACE TROUGHS. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN PARTICULAR AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RAINFALL
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING FAIRLY
WELL...AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE WE WEIGHED HEAVIER TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL WITH
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATION. THAT BEING SAID...ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...THE MODEL HAD AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAIN FORECAST
FOR WESTERN COLOMBIA...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO
SUPPORT THOSE AMOUNTS. THE REASON IS THAT THERE IS NO ONSHORE FLOW
WITH DEEP MOISTURE...SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION
TO INTERACT WITH THE LOCAL OROGRAPHY. THERE IS ALSO NO SIGNIFICANT
MID OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO PROMOTE LIFTING AND VENTILATION OVER
THE AREA. FOR THAT REASON...THE MAX RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WAS
LIMITED TO 30-60MM.
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI...THE RAINFALL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL TODAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH BRIEF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UP TO 35MM OR LESS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER
TROUGH COULD PROMOTE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS TO
THE USVI. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DIFFERS IN THEIR RAINFALL
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS BEING VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNTS.
AT THIS TIME...SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY
WEAK...AND THERE IS MODEL DISCREPANCY ON HOW STRONG THE TROUGH
WILL BE IN A FEW DAYS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...THE
RAINFALL FORECAST WAS LIMITED TO INDICATE MAX VALUES OF 25-50MM
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...IN ORDER TO SHOW AN AREA OF POSSIBLE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BUT EXPRESSING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
AMOUNTS.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12
TW 13N 44W 48W 50W 51W 52W 53W 54W 56W 58W
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INITIALIZED AT 44W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
13N. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT WILL START TO PICK UP SPEED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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