014
FXUS01 KWBC 042013
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EST MON NOV 04 2024
VALID 00Z TUE NOV 05 2024 - 00Z THU NOV 07 2024
...MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TO THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
...NEXT ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WIND WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES..
...WATCHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND EAST COAST...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. A FLOOD WATCH IS ACTIVE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AS WELL AS FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS. A DYNAMIC UPPER JET PATTERN, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE, AND A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN, WITH A TARGETED MODERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER
EAST OKLAHOMA, WESTERN ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH, THOUGH AREAS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS A LINE OF STORMS BRING HEAVY RAINS ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
STREAMS AHEAD OF RAFAEL. A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
ACTIVE ACROSS AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE RAINFALL MAY BE
MAXIMIZED AS A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES,
SO KEEP UPDATED. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AN ENHANCED RISK FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HAZARDS
INCLUDE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES, GUSTY WINDS, AND SOME HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, TUESDAY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MIDWEST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND MAY PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST OR A TORNADO OR TWO. WEDNESDAY,
THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WILL FAVOR SOME
WATERSPOUTS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WEATHER OUT WEST WILL TURN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIPS DOWN. FOR TODAY, A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING RAIN
TO THE COASTLINES AND SOME MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CASCADES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOW, IN ADDITION TO
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
HIGH WIND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE AS AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS INVADES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND LOWS MAY APPROACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE COOL SPOTS. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP.
FROM WINTER WEATHER TO TROPICS, RESIDENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AND ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE AND KEEP
UPDATED WITH THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
HURRICANE AT NHC.NOAA.GOV.
LASTLY, WITH ALL THIS ACTIVE WEATHER, THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO
REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S NEARING 80 BY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE HEAT WILL ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S; MANY STATIONS NEAR OR ECLIPSE DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST COAST IN KEY SUMMARY.
WILDER
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