281
FXUS01 KWBC 050826
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST TUE NOV 05 2024
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 05 2024 - 12Z THU NOV 07 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX, MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WIND WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY, REACHING INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FOUR
CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
...WATCHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND EAST
COAST...
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS SUSTAINED THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE FARTHER EAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT AS
SUPPORTED BY THE FINAL PIECES OF ENERGY OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT, THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS TROPICAL STORM
RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
HURRICANE. THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST TO THE PATH OF
RAFAEL WITH INCREASING WINDS AMID PASSING SQUALLY DOWNPOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS FROM RAFAEL BY LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
HURRICANE FOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON RAFAEL. SOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WELL AHEAD OF RAFAEL COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WEATHER OUT WEST IS GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY DIGS ACROSS. A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ALREADY TRAVERSED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION TO WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAS PROMPTED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND STORM WARNINGS, STRONG WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW HAVE ALSO PROMPTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE FRONT WILL DIP FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A ROUND OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BLANKET MUCH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INVADES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND LOWS MAY APPROACH THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COOL SPOTS. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP.
KONG/WILDER
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