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FXUS06 KWBC 052002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE NOVEMBER 05 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 15 2024
THE GEFS AND CMCE DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH (RIDGE) OVER THE WESTERN
(EASTERN) CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). HOWEVER, THE ECENS ALONG WITH ITS
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN FAVORS MORE MID-LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST WHICH
LEADS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER OUTCOME ALONG THE EAST COAST COMPARED TO THE
PREFERRED GEFS. BASED ON BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY, THE GEFS AND
CMCE ARE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY IN CREATING THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND. THE
6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WAS BASED MOSTLY ON THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL AND
ITS UNCALIBRATED OUTPUT WITH INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK IS MUCH LOWER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
ANY EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIMING OFF BY DAY 6
OR 7, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES REMAIN ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CONUS. FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST, PREDICTED MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD SUPPORT INCREASED
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE GEFS FEATURES 5-DAY TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE
EAST COAST AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE LARGEST FOR THOSE
AREAS.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS
LONGWAVE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
ALASKA WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR MOST
OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. CONSISTENT WITH A LEAN TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PREDICTED NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO STORMINESS NEARBY ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - 19 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FEATURE A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS, RESPECTIVELY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE GEFS
REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
500-HPA TROUGH ALONG WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE PREDICTED STORM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
ALTHOUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVE DURING
WEEK-2, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND EVIDENT IN THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
FRONT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND MIDWEST ON DAY 8. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH REAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THIS REGION AND THERE COULD BE
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS LATER IN
WEEK-2. THEREFORE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES FOCUSED ALONG THE MOST
LIKELY STORM TRACK(S) DURING WEEK-2. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BUT IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ANALOG TOOL
DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS REGION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING THIS DRYING TREND AND BASED ON THE PREFERRED
GEFS REFORECAST TOOL, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURE TOOLS FAVOR A WARMING TREND ACROSS ALASKA DURING THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, INITIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE,
WEAKENS AND WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
MORE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE ALONG WITH THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA. A TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING SEA AND MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACKING EASTWARD SUPPORT ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
A MAJORITY OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GEFS (DRY) AND
ECMWF (WET) REFORECAST TOOLS, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19531118 - 19561117 - 19981016 - 19711115 - 19571116
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19531118 - 19571115 - 19711116 - 19561116 - 19961023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - 19 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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