051
FXUS01 KWBC 052021
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
321 PM EST TUE NOV 05 2024
VALID 00Z WED NOV 06 2024 - 00Z FRI NOV 08 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX, MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WIND WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY, REACHING INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FOUR
CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
...WATCHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND EAST
COAST...
ENERGY TRAVERSING WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP SHIFT THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT
RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS FROM THE
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO WESTERN KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL (CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMAICA) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CUBA AS A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE
SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH. THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSEST TO THE PATH OF RAFAEL WITH INCREASING WINDS AMID PASSING
SQUALLY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS FROM RAFAEL BY LATER
ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON RAFAEL. SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WELL AHEAD OF RAFAEL COULD MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEST WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL PERSIST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE ARE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES, WINTER STORM WARNINGS, WINTER STORM WATCHES,
WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WATCHES SCATTERED FROM MONTANA TO
NEW MEXICO. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL
BE A ROUND OF NEW SNOW TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
AS ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INTO THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE COOL SPOTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LOWER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR WILDFIRES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXTREME AREA IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CLARITA
WHICH WILL CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY.
CAMPBELL/KONG/WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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