122
FXUS01 KWBC 060846
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST WED NOV 06 2024
VALID 12Z WED NOV 06 2024 - 12Z FRI NOV 08 2024
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EMERGING OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD...
...INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...WATCHING THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
RAFAEL FORECAST TO PASS NOT FAR TOO TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...
AS HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES TODAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE UNDER A BROAD
CHANNEL OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEAK LOW IS A SYSTEM
SOMEWHAT SEPARATE FROM HURRICANE RAFAEL FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TODAY, LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST. WPC CURRENTLY PLACES A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THIS
UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS TODAY PROGRESSES.
MEANWHILE, HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE HEADING NORTHWEST TOWARD WESTERN
CUBA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR RAFAEL TO BE A
CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO THE WEST OF KEY
WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEY WHERE INCREASING
WINDS WITH PASSING SQUALLY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS
FROM RAFAEL CAN BE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
AS RAFAEL THREATENS THE FLORIDA KEYS, A WINTER STORM IS BREWING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
PLUNGING SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING,
USHERING A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION WHILE DEVELOPING AN
AREA OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PICKUP
INTENSITY AS TODAY PROGRESSES. THE COMPACT AND VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS UPPER LOW WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE SNOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NEARBY HIGH PLAINS (MOSTLY
WITHIN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO) AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES AND
LINGERS. IF THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS MORE THAN EXPECTED, THE
ASSOCIATED SNOW COULD LINGER IN THE SAME AREA FARTHER OUT IN TIME.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO, WHILE A FEW FEET OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE COLORADO-NEW
MEXICO BORDER AND INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WINTER STORM WATCHES
AND WARNINGS AS WELL AS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN ADDITION TO PRODUCING
SNOW, THIS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW COULD HAVE CHANGEABLE INFLUENCES ON
THE FUTURE TRACK OF RAFAEL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO
NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK ON RAFAEL.
AS ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INTO THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE COOL SPOTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LOWER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR WILDFIRES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTED FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH AN EXTREME AREA IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CLARITA WHICH WILL CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY. IN CONTRAST,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CHALLENGE OR BREAK RECORDS TODAY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS
SCATTERED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KONG/CAMPBELL
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