028
FXUS01 KWBC 061954
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST WED NOV 06 2024
VALID 00Z THU NOV 07 2024 - 00Z SAT NOV 09 2024
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EMERGING OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD...
...INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...WATCHING THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
RAFAEL FORECAST TO PASS NOT FAR TOO TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE UNDER A BROAD CHANNEL OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WEAK LOW IS A SYSTEM SOMEWHAT SEPARATE FROM HURRICANE
RAFAEL FARTHER SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
TODAY, LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THE SOUTHEAST. WPC CURRENTLY
PLACES A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THIS UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE HEADING NORTHWEST TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS RAFAEL
TRACKING JUST TO THE WEST OF KEY WEST AS CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE
INCREASING WINDS WITH PASSING SQUALLY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
RAINBANDS FROM RAFAEL CAN BE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLOOD CONCERNS.
MEANWHILE, A WINTER STORM IS BREWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PLUNGING SOUTH USHERING A SURGE
OF POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION WHILE DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PICKUP INTENSITY THROUGH THE
DAY. THE COMPACT AND VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL HELP
SUSTAIN THE SNOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NEARBY HIGH PLAINS (MOSTLY WITHIN COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO) AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES AND LINGERS. IF THE UPPER
LOW DEEPENS MORE THAN EXPECTED, THE ASSOCIATED SNOW COULD LINGER
IN THE SAME AREA FARTHER OUT IN TIME. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO, WHILE A
FEW FEET OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS WELL AS WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. IN ADDITION TO PRODUCING SNOW, THIS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
COULD HAVE CHANGEABLE INFLUENCES ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF RAFAEL IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK ON RAFAEL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT; WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND DIPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COOL SPOTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MAKE SURE
TO BUNDLE UP. STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LOWER MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CRITICAL
WILDFIRE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS CALIFORNIA WHERE RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH AN
EXTREME AREA IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CLARITA WHICH WILL CARRY
OVER INTO THURSDAY. IN CONTRAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CHALLENGE OR BREAK RECORDS TODAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS SCATTERED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
CAMPBELL/KONG
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