899
FXCA20 KWBC 062036
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EST WED NOV 06 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 NOV 2024 AT 2030 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
HURRICANE RAFAEL. HURRICANE RAFAEL...NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
WITH WINDS OF 100 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. IN THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE RAFAEL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN MOVE MORE WESTERLY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA COULD OBSERVE AS MUCH AS 200 TO 400MM OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHILE THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL OBSERVE
DIMINISHING RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
AWAY. THAT SAID...PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE STILL
FORECAST SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER
OF RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE ISLAND BY EARLY
THURSDAY...A TRAILING BAND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT ON FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES OF THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON HURRICANE RAFAEL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL REGION...A FEW FEATURES WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. LOWER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL
REGION...MEXICO IN PARTICULAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING AREAS AROUND
PR/USVI AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS. THIS LOCALIZED HIGHER MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTER CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREATER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING AN AREA WITH ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MOVING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AREAS IN THE PERIPHERY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE COULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...ENCOUNTERING
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL WAS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN FORECAST...WE WENT UNDER THE
MODEL WITH THE AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND WAITING FOR
MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THAT SAID...IT MAY PAY TO
KNOW THAT THIS MESOSCALE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WAS WELL FORECAST BY THE GFS...WHILE NOT SO MUCH BY THE
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SO WE ARE INCLINED TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
ANOTHER AREA TO MONITOR IS CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY PORTIONS
IN AND AROUND COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
CAUSE A PERSISTENT INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA. THE DAILY RAINFALL
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS IN THE ORDER OF
15-20MM WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 25-80MM DEPENDING ON THE DAY...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEING THE WETTEST PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST ARE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHERE AMOUNTS
MAXING OUT AT AROUND 15MM ARE FORECAST EACH DAY.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO HAVE A RELATIVELY TYPICAL
RAINFALL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND
15-25MM ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE COAST OF WESTERN COLOMBIA IS
FORECAST MAX RAINFALL VALUES NEAR 35-80MM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12
TW 13N 53W 54W 56W 58W 60W 62W 64W 67W 69W
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INITIALIZED AT 53W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
13N. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST...AND THE
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON ITS FORWARD SPEED IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE IN ITS POSITION BY THIS
WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE MAY BRING AN INCREASE TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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