049
FXUS01 KWBC 071946
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EST THU NOV 07 2024
VALID 00Z FRI NOV 08 2024 - 00Z SUN NOV 10 2024
...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO WHILE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER, AND WINDY CONDITIONS
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE GULF MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...
...RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST...
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE PULLS OFFSHORE OF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. UNTIL THEN, WPC HAS PORTIONS OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK AND A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. FURTHER
SOUTH THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND SQUALLY DOWNPOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS FROM HURRICANE RAFAEL HAVE GREATLY
DIMINISHED NOW THAT HURRICANE RAFAEL IS TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE, A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PLUNGING SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION WHILE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
COMPACT AND VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP SUSTAIN
SNOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NEARBY HIGH PLAINS (MOSTLY WITHIN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO) AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES AND LINGERS. THIS WINTER STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEARING A 1 FOOT FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO AND A FEW FEET OF HEAVY, WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. NUMEROUS
WINTER STORM WARNINGS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
THIS SAME SYSTEM ALSO POSES A HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE EXPANDING ACROSS
WESTERN TEXAS TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OVER
WESTERN TEXAS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. A BAND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL COME UNDER AN INCREASING THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AS
WELL ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS MOST RAPIDLY. THIS COULD RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY HEAVY SNOW ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN COLORADO, WHILE WIND-SWEPT RAIN IMPACTS OKLAHOMA
AND KANSAS, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP EAST ACROSS TEXAS AHEAD
OF THE POTENT COLD FRONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER, HEAVY SNOW COULD LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW COULD
HAVE CHANGEABLE INFLUENCES ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF RAFAEL IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK
ON RAFAEL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT; WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COOL SPOTS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP. STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH LOWER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES IN THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
PERSIST ACROSS CALIFORNIA WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTED FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH AN EXTREME AREA IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA
CLARITA WHICH WILL CARRY OVER FOR TODAY. IN CONTRAST, RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
QUITE REACHING RECORD LEVELS BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THESE AREAS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
CAMPBELL/KONG
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