155
FXCA20 KWBC 071954
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST THU NOV 07 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 NOV 2024 AT 20 UTC:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION CONTINUES UPPER DIVERGENT OVER THE
AMERICAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW OF THE SYSTEMS OF
INTEREST IN THE REGION.
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS HURRICANE RAFAEL. AT 15 UTC...RAFAEL
CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
ESTIMATED AT 971 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 105 KT. RAFAEL WAS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR AT 295 DEGREES AND AT A SPEED OF 05 KT. RAFAEL
DOES NOT POSE A DIRECT THREAT TO CONTINENTAL AREAS IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FEEDER BAND CONVECTION WILL STILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF20-35MM IN WEST CUBA ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN WEST CUBA AND THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOW NHC PRODUCTS FOR UPDATES ON RAFAEL.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS A POTENT TUTT THAT IS RETROGRADING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY. THIS TUTT HAS
A STRONG SIGNATURE BOTH IN THE UPPER AND IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE...WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTING ITS ABILITY TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...TWO INDUCED TROUGHS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TUTT...WHICH WILL AID WITH ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD FROM PUERTO RICO/THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY
TO SOUTHEAST CUBA BY SATURDAY. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT
INTERMITTENT STRONG CONVECTION IN THE DOMININCAN REPUBLIC AND
PUERTO RICO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 30-60MM/DAY AND
20-45MM/DAY RANGES RESPECTIVELY. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN MOST OF
HAITI AND THE NORTHWEST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO CLUSTER IN SOUTHEAST CUBA WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE IN JAMAICA...DESTABILIZATION BY
THE TUTT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
A SURFACE FRONT IS ORGANIZING TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO NEAR 23-25N. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS...IT WILL DEVELOP AN IMPACT IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AS IT BECOMES A PROMINENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE
CONVERNGE.
THE LAST SITUATION OF INTEREST IS A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MJO CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...WHICH IS
ENHANCING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWEST
NICARAGUA. THIS IS COMBINING WITH FEEDER BAND CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH RAFAEL. AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES...EXPECT A
LOWERING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RETROGRADING TUTT. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO STEEP
TERRAIN OF COSTA RICA AND PARTS OF PANAMA...BUT WILL ENHANCE
VENTILATION ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...SETTING UP AN
ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN WEST PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...WHILE IN WEST NICARAGUA AND NORTHWEST COSTA RICA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON FRIDAY EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 75-125MM
IN MOST OF WESTERN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA. IN EAST
PANAMA/DARIEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 75-150MM CLUSTERING IN NORTHWEST COSTA RICA AND
SOUTHWEST NICARAGUA...IN SOUTHWEST PANAMA AND IN EASTERN
PANAMA/DARIEN.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12
TW 13N 56W 58W 60W 62W 64W 66W 68W 71W 74W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 56W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. IT
IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN GUYANA AND THE
ORINOCO DELTA ON THURSDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY IT
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND
BARBADOS...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ON SATURDAY...THE MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND AN
APPROACHING INDUCED TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
AMERICA. DIRECT IMPACTS OF THE WAVE WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE VI.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
JACKMAN...(BMS - BARBADOS)
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