813
FXCA20 KWBC 081838
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 NOV 2024 AT 1830 UTC:
A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS HURRICANE RAFAEL...LOCATED CLOSE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AT 15 UTC...NHC'S ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
RAFAEL CENTERED NEAR 24.5 88.8W. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
ESTIMATED AT 961 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95KT WITH
GUSTS TO 115KT. RAFAEL WAS MOVING TO THE WEST OR AT 270 DEGREES AT
08 KT. NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT RAFAEL IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE DIRECT
IMPACTS IN CONTINENTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FEEDER BAND CONVECTION WILL FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
IN FAR WEST CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN WEST CUBA. ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EXPECT SIMILAR
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON SUNDAY...THE MOIST
PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEEDERBAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA/BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO FAVOR
SIMILAR ACCUMULATION.
ANOTHER SITUATION OF CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNRAVELING IN
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...A POTENT TUTT CENTERS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND EXTENDS ITS BASE INTO PANAMA/WESTERN COLOMBIA. THIS IS
YIELDING TO A LOWERING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS IN TERM ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS
THE PACIFIC BASIN. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN IN COSTA
RICA...PANAMA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA TO DEVELOP STRONG CONVECTION
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MOREOVER...MJO CONDITIONS CONTINUE FAVORABLE
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE BASIN. THIS IS CLEAR
IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE UNRAVELING EVENT. NOTE THAT
THE EVENT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A NEW
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. COSTA RICA AND PANAMA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THIS SITUATION. IN TERMS OF 24-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST CLUSTERING IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL PANAMA WHERE EXPECT
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION.
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. IN
WEST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST TO CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COSTA RICA...WHERE EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-125MM ALSO WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
DARIEN WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE IN CENTRAL AND WEST
PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA
WHERE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
100-200MM. WHILE IN NORTHWEST COSTA RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PANAMA EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT IS
VENTILATING CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS ASSOCIATES WITH INDUCED TROUGHS IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE MODULATING REGIONS OF ONSHORE/OFFSHORE FLOW. THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES IN NORTH HAITI WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE IN THE REST OF
HISPANIOLA EXPECT GENERALLY 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN
PUERTO RICO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...PRIMARILY IN EATERN
PORTIONS AND IN THE VI. IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION CLUSTERING IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA WHERE
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT THE MOIST PLUME TO MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN MOST OF THE BAHAMAS.
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY A TROPICAL WAVE (SEE BELOW).
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INT 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12
TW 18N 60W 62W 64W 65W 67W 68W 70W 72W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
THE VI AND PUERTO RICO...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EASTERN
VENEZUELA. THE TRAILING MOIST PLUME WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ON SUNDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA/MB BRAZIL)
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